El Niños to cause trillions in lost economic growth

Damage from El Nino-related extreme weather can cost billions of dollars in direct impacts during the meteorological phenomenon. 

The extreme weather phenomenon will likely result in crop losses, flooding, wildfires, and civil unrest, and new research indicates that the real cost will likely be in the trillions because conventional accounting has a major shortcoming in recognizing persistent declines in gross domestic product (GDP) that unfurl over several years and are harder to notice.

Published in the journal Science, the paper by Dartmouth Earth system scientists Christopher Callahan and Justin Mankin said that the El Nino weather pattern will form later this year and can result in everything from winter blizzards in the US Northeast to a tamer Atlantic hurricane season, rain in dry East Africa, wildfires in Indonesia, hot and dry weather in Australia, and mortal heat on coral reefs.

Earlier this month, the US Climate Prediction Center raised the odds beyond 90% that an El Nino weather pattern will form in late 2023 and might last until 2027. With the world 1.2 °C warmer than pre-industrialization global temperatures, the El Nino meteorological occurrence practically guarantees record heat.

Technically a warmer phase of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, the El Nino has become a kind of sneak preview for a few extreme conditions that climate change may make a regular occurrence in the coming years.

The authors reported their findings carry several implications. One is new recognition of just how sensitive countries are to normal climate variability, even without considering global warming